#6: How Does Population Census Affect What Type of Property to Purchase? | NOTG S2 E6

1[Melvin Lim]
00:00:00,000 –> 00:00:01,760
Today we wanna talk about this very interesting

2[Melvin Lim]
00:00:01,760 –> 00:00:03,439
article that was released.

3[Melvin Lim]
00:00:03,439 –> 00:00:07,080
Still feeling a little bit zonky.

4[Melvin Lim]
00:00:07,080 –> 00:00:11,839
Population consensus, estimated behavioural projections.

5[Melvin Lim]
00:00:31,199 –> 00:00:33,399
All right, welcome back to Nuggets On The Go

6[Melvin Lim]
00:00:33,399 –> 00:00:34,920
episode number…

7[Melvin Lim]
00:00:35,679 –> 00:00:38,200
six, thanks Daniel, and we’re back.

8[Melvin Lim]
00:00:38,200 –> 00:00:40,840
Thank you for staying with us on Nuggets On The Go

9[Melvin Lim]
00:00:40,840 –> 00:00:43,719
episode four and five the last two weeks.

10[Melvin Lim]
00:00:43,719 –> 00:00:46,119
Now we are on a Friday morning.

11[Melvin Lim]
00:00:46,119 –> 00:00:50,439
I’m still feeling a little bit zonky.

12[Melvin Lim]
00:00:50,439 –> 00:00:52,960
Thankfully, I went for a jog this morning at 6:00 AM.

13[Melvin Lim]
00:00:52,960 –> 00:00:56,520
I still have a little bit more adrenaline

14[Melvin Lim]
00:00:56,520 –> 00:00:58,679
and endorphin release in my body.

15[Melvin Lim]
00:00:58,679 –> 00:01:00,439
So, I hope that you are having a good day.

16[Melvin Lim]
00:01:00,439 –> 00:01:02,039
Now today, we wanna talk about this very

17[Melvin Lim]
00:01:02,039 –> 00:01:04,680
interesting article that was released on

18[Melvin Lim]
00:01:04,680 –> 00:01:06,319
19th June on The Straits Times.

19[Melvin Lim]
00:01:06,319 –> 00:01:07,920
And we’re gonna take some reference

20[Melvin Lim]
00:01:07,920 –> 00:01:10,159
on The Straits Times showing on screen.

21[Melvin Lim]
00:01:10,159 –> 00:01:12,760
Some of these articles that have popped up.

22[Melvin Lim]
00:01:12,760 –> 00:01:15,879
Basically it’s the population consensus that was

23[Melvin Lim]
00:01:15,879 –> 00:01:19,680
released in a two-part research article that came

24[Melvin Lim]
00:01:19,680 –> 00:01:24,120
out on 18th June by Singapore Department of Statistics.

25[Melvin Lim]
00:01:24,120 –> 00:01:26,760
And I think this is a very important article for us

26[Melvin Lim]
00:01:26,760 –> 00:01:29,359
to understand about the landscape of Singapore in terms

27[Melvin Lim]
00:01:29,359 –> 00:01:33,400
of population, demographics that will probably

28[Melvin Lim]
00:01:33,400 –> 00:01:36,159
be affecting our key decisions

29[Melvin Lim]
00:01:36,159 –> 00:01:38,680
in the next three, five, eight, 10 years.

30[Melvin Lim]
00:01:38,680 –> 00:01:41,400
I think we learnt a lot of things from this article itself

31[Melvin Lim]
00:01:41,400 –> 00:01:42,799
and what I think we’re gonna do

32[Melvin Lim]
00:01:42,799 –> 00:01:44,799
is that the PLB Insights team.

33[Melvin Lim]
00:01:44,799 –> 00:01:47,920
PLB Insights team, is our research and analysis team

34[Melvin Lim]
00:01:47,920 –> 00:01:48,760
within PropertyLimBrothers.

35[Melvin Lim]
00:01:48,760 –> 00:01:49,920
We are gonna come up with some

36[Melvin Lim]
00:01:49,920 –> 00:01:54,040
very detailed, deep dive analysis on what we think will be

37[Melvin Lim]
00:01:54,040 –> 00:01:58,439
some of the future estimated behavioural projections

38[Melvin Lim]
00:01:58,439 –> 00:02:00,680
for housing, for accommodation,

39[Melvin Lim]
00:02:00,680 –> 00:02:02,719
for the types of properties needs

40[Melvin Lim]
00:02:02,719 –> 00:02:04,719
perhaps in the next three to five years,

41[Melvin Lim]
00:02:04,719 –> 00:02:06,719
especially I think as we are going

42[Melvin Lim]
00:02:06,719 –> 00:02:09,639
towards the year 2030, I’m not sure whether have you,

43[Melvin Lim]
00:02:09,639 –> 00:02:12,120
have we forgotten about this key article

44[Melvin Lim]
00:02:12,120 –> 00:02:16,400
that was released in January, 30th, or is that 30th?

45[Melvin Lim]
00:02:17,439 –> 00:02:18,240
Oh, sorry

46[Melvin Lim]
00:02:18,240 –> 00:02:20,719
I don’t think I’ve got myopia right? Okay.

47[Melvin Lim]
00:02:20,719 –> 00:02:23,879
January 30th 2013. All right.

48[Melvin Lim]
00:02:23,879 –> 00:02:27,919
And this was one of the very explosive article

49[Melvin Lim]
00:02:27,919 –> 00:02:30,879
that came out, a lot of debates that were ongoing,

50[Melvin Lim]
00:02:30,879 –> 00:02:32,360
that went on for about a year.

51[Melvin Lim]
00:02:32,360 –> 00:02:34,439
People were talking about whether will population

52[Melvin Lim]
00:02:34,439 –> 00:02:35,719
reach 10 million?

53[Melvin Lim]
00:02:35,719 –> 00:02:38,599
Will it reach 6.9 million by the year 2030?

54[Melvin Lim]
00:02:38,599 –> 00:02:41,840
And this was the article that technically helps us

55[Melvin Lim]
00:02:41,840 –> 00:02:44,520
to look into some of the growth plans

56[Melvin Lim]
00:02:44,520 –> 00:02:46,039
that our local government have.

57[Melvin Lim]
00:02:46,039 –> 00:02:48,159
And I think definitely we trust our government.

58[Melvin Lim]
00:02:48,159 –> 00:02:50,599
We know that based on their planning,

59[Melvin Lim]
00:02:50,599 –> 00:02:52,360
they’re looking really far ahead

60[Melvin Lim]
00:02:52,360 –> 00:02:56,319
and they’re thinking about the growth rates in terms

61[Melvin Lim]
00:02:56,319 –> 00:03:00,400
of our marriage rates in Singapore’s population,

62[Melvin Lim]
00:03:00,400 –> 00:03:03,360
the number of babies are being born each year on year.

63[Melvin Lim]
00:03:03,360 –> 00:03:06,000
And I think this article,

64[Melvin Lim]
00:03:06,000 –> 00:03:08,000
everybody will more or less remember

65[Melvin Lim]
00:03:08,000 –> 00:03:11,919
that we’re projecting to hit about 6.9 million by 2030.

66[Melvin Lim]
00:03:11,919 –> 00:03:14,360
So initially when this came out in 2013,

67[Melvin Lim]
00:03:14,360 –> 00:03:16,479
a lot of people were thinking, “oh no, it’s not possible.

68[Melvin Lim]
00:03:16,479 –> 00:03:17,520
I don’t know if it’s possible” and things like that.

69[Melvin Lim]
00:03:17,520 –> 00:03:20,840
But when you look at this separate chart that was

70[Melvin Lim]
00:03:20,840 –> 00:03:23,439
also released by Singapore Department of Statistics,

71[Melvin Lim]
00:03:23,439 –> 00:03:27,000
January 2013, at that point in time, 2012,

72[Melvin Lim]
00:03:27,000 –> 00:03:30,400
our population was about 5.31 million.

73[Melvin Lim]
00:03:30,400 –> 00:03:33,120
And then the projection was that by 2020, we’re gonna

74[Melvin Lim]
00:03:33,120 –> 00:03:35,000
hit about 5.8 to 6 million.

75[Melvin Lim]
00:03:35,000 –> 00:03:36,919
Now let’s have a look at this.

76[Melvin Lim]
00:03:36,919 –> 00:03:40,240
That was also being released just about last week.

77[Melvin Lim]
00:03:40,240 –> 00:03:42,479
So at this point of filming, today’s the 25th June.

78[Melvin Lim]
00:03:42,479 –> 00:03:44,680
So just a reference point for you.

79[Melvin Lim]
00:03:44,680 –> 00:03:49,680
So as you can see, the census of population 2020,

80[Melvin Lim]
00:03:49,680 –> 00:03:52,680
we are now at about 5.69 million.

81[Melvin Lim]
00:03:52,680 –> 00:03:55,280
In 2010, there was about 5.08 million.

82[Melvin Lim]
00:03:55,280 –> 00:03:58,479
So compare that to the 2013 article,

83[Melvin Lim]
00:03:58,479 –> 00:03:59,599
pretty much about there.

84[Melvin Lim]
00:03:59,599 –> 00:04:02,360
So we’re now at 5.69 million.

85[Melvin Lim]
00:04:02,360 –> 00:04:05,360
At that time, the estimated projection is 5.8 to 6 million.

86[Melvin Lim]
00:04:05,360 –> 00:04:07,879
So it’s slowed down a little bit in terms of population growth,

87[Melvin Lim]
00:04:07,879 –> 00:04:11,599
but we are definitely increasing in terms of population.

88[Melvin Lim]
00:04:11,599 –> 00:04:13,360
And as you can see,

89[Melvin Lim]
00:04:13,360 –> 00:04:15,360
there’s an increment in the amount of residents

90[Melvin Lim]
00:04:15,360 –> 00:04:17,160
as well as non-residents.

91[Melvin Lim]
00:04:17,160 –> 00:04:18,000
And these are all very

92[Melvin Lim]
00:04:18,000 –> 00:04:19,720
interesting things that we wanna look at.

93[Melvin Lim]
00:04:19,720 –> 00:04:22,519
The Permanent Residents population has sort of,

94[Melvin Lim]
00:04:22,519 –> 00:04:25,160
like stabilised, have plateaued, is not much increment.

95[Melvin Lim]
00:04:25,160 –> 00:04:27,600
In fact, that’s a slight decrease as well.

96[Melvin Lim]
00:04:27,600 –> 00:04:30,759
Something interesting is that by 2030,

97[Melvin Lim]
00:04:30,759 –> 00:04:32,920
now we are in the year 2021,

98[Melvin Lim]
00:04:32,920 –> 00:04:34,040
there’s another nine years to go.

99[Melvin Lim]
00:04:34,040 –> 00:04:37,759
So by 2030, will we reach 6.9 million?

100[Melvin Lim]
00:04:37,759 –> 00:04:39,959
I think definitely if it’s in the plan

101[Melvin Lim]
00:04:39,959 –> 00:04:42,879
in our government’s projection,

102[Melvin Lim]
00:04:42,879 –> 00:04:45,680
very highly likely that it will happen.

103[Melvin Lim]
00:04:45,680 –> 00:04:47,439
And I think overall, it’s good for the economy

104[Melvin Lim]
00:04:47,439 –> 00:04:50,279
as well because our birth rate keeps decreasing.

105[Melvin Lim]
00:04:50,279 –> 00:04:53,800
Technically with an imbalance of ageing population

106[Melvin Lim]
00:04:53,800 –> 00:04:56,000
is not gonna be very healthy for the overall economy.

107[Melvin Lim]
00:04:56,000 –> 00:04:58,199
And our next generation is gonna suffer

108[Melvin Lim]
00:04:58,199 –> 00:05:00,120
because they are gonna be the sandwich generation

109[Melvin Lim]
00:05:00,120 –> 00:05:02,800
that needs to uplift and uphold the entire economy.

110[Melvin Lim]
00:05:02,800 –> 00:05:04,600
If we have too much population that is

111[Melvin Lim]
00:05:04,600 –> 00:05:07,120
in the ageing population category.

112[Melvin Lim]
00:05:07,120 –> 00:05:08,560
I have kids, you have kids as well.

113[Melvin Lim]
00:05:08,560 –> 00:05:11,199
We are all thinking about our next generation

114[Melvin Lim]
00:05:11,199 –> 00:05:13,000
and let’s come back to this.

115[Melvin Lim]
00:05:13,000 –> 00:05:16,879
Now, I’m gonna reference back to The Straits Times article.

116[Melvin Lim]
00:05:16,879 –> 00:05:19,800
And there are two interesting reports.

117[Melvin Lim]
00:05:19,800 –> 00:05:22,279
One is this. One is this one as well.

118[Melvin Lim]
00:05:22,279 –> 00:05:24,480
About 10 things that we can learn.

119[Melvin Lim]
00:05:24,480 –> 00:05:26,759
And if you have time, do read on it.

120[Melvin Lim]
00:05:26,759 –> 00:05:29,040
But what we’re gonna do is that in a couple of weeks’ time,

121[Melvin Lim]
00:05:29,040 –> 00:05:31,000
we’re gonna release some insights

122[Melvin Lim]
00:05:31,000 –> 00:05:33,720
about this on propertylimbrothers.com/insights.

123[Melvin Lim]
00:05:33,720 –> 00:05:35,120
You can head in and read on it.

124[Melvin Lim]
00:05:35,120 –> 00:05:38,639
We’re also going to come up with some social media summary

125[Melvin Lim]
00:05:38,639 –> 00:05:40,560
on our Instagram and Facebook page.

126[Melvin Lim]
00:05:40,560 –> 00:05:42,040
So you can also head on there as well.

127[Melvin Lim]
00:05:42,040 –> 00:05:44,959
By the way, if you’ve not subscribed to our Telegram channel,

128[Melvin Lim]
00:05:44,959 –> 00:05:47,040
head onto this link right here, that I’m gonna flash it.

129[Melvin Lim]
00:05:47,040 –> 00:05:49,279
It’s also gonna be in the description box down below.

130[Melvin Lim]
00:05:49,279 –> 00:05:51,240
You can subscribe to our Telegram channel

131[Melvin Lim]
00:05:51,240 –> 00:05:52,160
for daily updates.

132[Melvin Lim]
00:05:52,160 –> 00:05:55,920
We update our audience daily on Telegram as well.

133[Melvin Lim]
00:05:55,920 –> 00:05:57,720
Now, very first thing is that the population

134[Melvin Lim]
00:05:57,720 –> 00:05:59,079
continues to grey.

135[Melvin Lim]
00:05:59,079 –> 00:06:01,519
This is expected definitely.

136[Melvin Lim]
00:06:01,519 –> 00:06:04,560
Something to note about this is that when we think

137[Melvin Lim]
00:06:04,560 –> 00:06:06,560
about real estate in particular in Singapore,

138[Melvin Lim]
00:06:06,560 –> 00:06:07,920
what we’re thinking is that

139[Melvin Lim]
00:06:07,920 –> 00:06:12,639
this greying statistics is definitely happening.

140[Melvin Lim]
00:06:12,639 –> 00:06:14,240
The next question that we wanna ask ourselves

141[Melvin Lim]
00:06:14,240 –> 00:06:16,560
is that if the population continues to grey

142[Melvin Lim]
00:06:16,560 –> 00:06:18,680
for the next 10, 20, 30 years,

143[Melvin Lim]
00:06:18,680 –> 00:06:20,920
because our baby boomers are now entering

144[Melvin Lim]
00:06:20,920 –> 00:06:22,720
into another stage of their lives.

145[Melvin Lim]
00:06:22,720 –> 00:06:25,240
In future, I will be part of the greying population.

146[Melvin Lim]
00:06:25,240 –> 00:06:28,040
So what is going to be the preferences in terms

147[Melvin Lim]
00:06:28,040 –> 00:06:30,720
of housing for the greying population?

148[Melvin Lim]
00:06:30,720 –> 00:06:32,680
I mean, all of us go through a cycle.

149[Melvin Lim]
00:06:32,680 –> 00:06:35,279
I mean, when we completed our studies,

150[Melvin Lim]
00:06:35,279 –> 00:06:38,439
our education, polytechnic, junior college or university

151[Melvin Lim]
00:06:38,439 –> 00:06:41,480
in Singapore, we started working at about probably 24,

152[Melvin Lim]
00:06:41,480 –> 00:06:43,079
25, 26 years old.

153[Melvin Lim]
00:06:43,079 –> 00:06:44,959
Ladies will start a little bit younger,

154[Melvin Lim]
00:06:44,959 –> 00:06:46,519
maybe between 22 and 23,

155[Melvin Lim]
00:06:46,519 –> 00:06:47,800
they enter into the workforce,

156[Melvin Lim]
00:06:47,800 –> 00:06:50,639
save up a little bit, generically speaking,

157[Melvin Lim]
00:06:50,639 –> 00:06:53,759
most people started to settle down with their

158[Melvin Lim]
00:06:53,759 –> 00:06:56,879
newly formed families between the age category of perhaps,

159[Melvin Lim]
00:06:56,879 –> 00:06:59,959
maybe between 28 to maybe 30 years old.

160[Melvin Lim]
00:06:59,959 –> 00:07:02,920
Then that is the first really purchase

161[Melvin Lim]
00:07:02,920 –> 00:07:04,920
of their main pivot home.

162[Melvin Lim]
00:07:04,920 –> 00:07:08,040
So their first property usually happens within that range.

163[Melvin Lim]
00:07:08,040 –> 00:07:10,000
And then after they have lived in a property

164[Melvin Lim]
00:07:10,000 –> 00:07:12,560
for perhaps five years, if it’s a BTO flat,

165[Melvin Lim]
00:07:12,560 –> 00:07:14,120
or maybe a HDB resale,

166[Melvin Lim]
00:07:14,120 –> 00:07:16,199
or maybe in a private property at least three years

167[Melvin Lim]
00:07:16,199 –> 00:07:17,800
for sellers stamp duty to clear.

168[Melvin Lim]
00:07:17,800 –> 00:07:20,839
So maybe their second property was stuck at a range

169[Melvin Lim]
00:07:20,839 –> 00:07:24,720
of maybe in the mid 30s, all the way to the late 30s.

170[Melvin Lim]
00:07:24,720 –> 00:07:28,600
So usually when you see families out in the market,

171[Melvin Lim]
00:07:28,600 –> 00:07:30,560
hunting for properties and they’re upgrading

172[Melvin Lim]
00:07:30,560 –> 00:07:32,079
to their second home,

173[Melvin Lim]
00:07:32,079 –> 00:07:34,079
they are selling off their first purchase,

174[Melvin Lim]
00:07:34,079 –> 00:07:36,519
buying a condominium, buying a new launch,

175[Melvin Lim]
00:07:36,519 –> 00:07:37,800
buying a landed property,

176[Melvin Lim]
00:07:37,800 –> 00:07:41,000
usually they are in the range of about mid 30s to about late 30s

177[Melvin Lim]
00:07:41,000 –> 00:07:43,240
or maybe early 40s as well.

178[Melvin Lim]
00:07:43,240 –> 00:07:46,160
So that is the second phase that they will go through

179[Melvin Lim]
00:07:46,160 –> 00:07:48,639
And then usually they might settle down

180[Melvin Lim]
00:07:48,639 –> 00:07:51,560
for a slightly longer period of time based on what we see,

181[Melvin Lim]
00:07:51,560 –> 00:07:53,800
of course, different families have different preferences,

182[Melvin Lim]
00:07:53,800 –> 00:07:54,920
but most of the time,

183[Melvin Lim]
00:07:54,920 –> 00:07:58,319
their decision are being formed by the needs of their

184[Melvin Lim]
00:07:58,319 –> 00:08:00,399
children’s school, and a lot of parents

185[Melvin Lim]
00:08:00,399 –> 00:08:04,279
because we’re in Singapore, a little bit on meritocracy,

186[Melvin Lim]
00:08:04,279 –> 00:08:07,079
kind of underlying motivation that a lot

187[Melvin Lim]
00:08:07,079 –> 00:08:07,920
of parents will have.

188[Melvin Lim]
00:08:07,920 –> 00:08:11,879
They want their kids to be in schools that perhaps

189[Melvin Lim]
00:08:11,879 –> 00:08:14,879
they think will add a lot of value to their lives,

190[Melvin Lim]
00:08:14,879 –> 00:08:15,720
or perhaps,

191[Melvin Lim]
00:08:15,720 –> 00:08:18,959
maybe the parents were in the school alumni previously.

192[Melvin Lim]
00:08:18,959 –> 00:08:19,920
But end of the day,

193[Melvin Lim]
00:08:19,920 –> 00:08:22,199
a lot of focus are placed on location

194[Melvin Lim]
00:08:22,199 –> 00:08:23,399
of the kids’ school’s needs.

195[Melvin Lim]
00:08:23,399 –> 00:08:25,800
So even if let’s say the children are studying

196[Melvin Lim]
00:08:25,800 –> 00:08:29,360
in maybe different estates in suburban,

197[Melvin Lim]
00:08:29,360 –> 00:08:33,440
or maybe in the RCR region, maybe in Downtown Core region,

198[Melvin Lim]
00:08:33,440 –> 00:08:35,320
usually most of the time, their shift

199[Melvin Lim]
00:08:35,320 –> 00:08:39,000
towards their second home will cater to the needs

200[Melvin Lim]
00:08:39,000 –> 00:08:40,279
of their childrens’ needs in terms of

201[Melvin Lim]
00:08:40,279 –> 00:08:41,679
primary school and secondary school.

202[Melvin Lim]
00:08:41,679 –> 00:08:43,799
I mean, most of the time when they hit towards

203[Melvin Lim]
00:08:43,799 –> 00:08:47,919
the polytechnic or junior college kind of age group,

204[Melvin Lim]
00:08:47,919 –> 00:08:49,159
kids are able to travel themselves.

205[Melvin Lim]
00:08:49,159 –> 00:08:50,679
So that’s not too much of a concern.

206[Melvin Lim]
00:08:50,679 –> 00:08:52,679
Most of the time, it’s really the primary school

207[Melvin Lim]
00:08:52,679 –> 00:08:54,919
forming the bulk of the moving decision.

208[Melvin Lim]
00:08:54,919 –> 00:08:59,039
And based on this sort of timeline that we’re looking at,

209[Melvin Lim]
00:08:59,039 –> 00:09:03,559
the last phase is usually when the kids have grown up

210[Melvin Lim]
00:09:03,559 –> 00:09:05,799
and then the parents start to age

211[Melvin Lim]
00:09:05,799 –> 00:09:07,919
into late 40s, 50s.

212[Melvin Lim]
00:09:07,919 –> 00:09:11,720
And usually that’s the defensive kind of strategy stage.

213[Melvin Lim]
00:09:11,720 –> 00:09:16,480
Because for example, if a couple is reaching towards their 50s,

214[Melvin Lim]
00:09:16,480 –> 00:09:19,000
usually there’ll be very concerned about making

215[Melvin Lim]
00:09:19,000 –> 00:09:22,879
the final last move before age 54, because by age 55,

216[Melvin Lim]
00:09:22,879 –> 00:09:25,000
your retirement account will set in,

217[Melvin Lim]
00:09:25,000 –> 00:09:26,840
and then what’s gonna happen is that there’s gonna be

218[Melvin Lim]
00:09:26,840 –> 00:09:29,080
a lock-in amount in terms of the fulfilment of

219[Melvin Lim]
00:09:29,080 –> 00:09:30,519
the retirement account in your CPF fund.

220[Melvin Lim]
00:09:30,519 –> 00:09:32,559
So usually people wanna make the final move

221[Melvin Lim]
00:09:32,559 –> 00:09:34,559
so that they can utilise the amount

222[Melvin Lim]
00:09:34,559 –> 00:09:37,240
in their Ordinary Account to the fullest ability

223[Melvin Lim]
00:09:37,240 –> 00:09:40,200
before the lock-in sets in, in the retirement account.

224[Melvin Lim]
00:09:40,200 –> 00:09:43,080
So that’s when families usually turn

225[Melvin Lim]
00:09:43,080 –> 00:09:45,720
towards a 50 kind of aged bandwidth,

226[Melvin Lim]
00:09:45,720 –> 00:09:49,000
and the kids are also growing up in the tertiary

227[Melvin Lim]
00:09:49,000 –> 00:09:52,960
education stage and thus they wanna make the final move.

228[Melvin Lim]
00:09:52,960 –> 00:09:56,200
And we wanna understand if the population continues

229[Melvin Lim]
00:09:56,200 –> 00:09:59,720
to grey, and we’re looking at a slightly bigger

230[Melvin Lim]
00:09:59,720 –> 00:10:02,279
population in this age category,

231[Melvin Lim]
00:10:02,279 –> 00:10:05,639
what is gonna be the preference of families

232[Melvin Lim]
00:10:05,639 –> 00:10:06,600
in that age category?

233[Melvin Lim]
00:10:06,600 –> 00:10:08,480
Will they usually downsize?

234[Melvin Lim]
00:10:08,480 –> 00:10:11,519
Will they prefer to maybe move out

235[Melvin Lim]
00:10:11,519 –> 00:10:13,360
of their landed properties because maybe

236[Melvin Lim]
00:10:13,360 –> 00:10:15,159
they have seen appreciation in their landed properties.

237[Melvin Lim]
00:10:15,159 –> 00:10:18,080
And then perhaps their landed property has appreciated

238[Melvin Lim]
00:10:18,080 –> 00:10:19,559
to 3, 4, 5, 6 million.

239[Melvin Lim]
00:10:19,559 –> 00:10:24,159
They want to exit and then pay off maybe like a huge

240[Melvin Lim]
00:10:24,159 –> 00:10:27,399
HDB apartment at about $700,000, or maybe they wanna

241[Melvin Lim]
00:10:27,399 –> 00:10:31,639
pay off a $1.2 million condominium and then retire, right?

242[Melvin Lim]
00:10:31,639 –> 00:10:34,200
And they don’t want to have a landed property

243[Melvin Lim]
00:10:34,200 –> 00:10:35,279
with staircase any more.

244[Melvin Lim]
00:10:35,279 –> 00:10:36,799
They just wanna have a single level kind

245[Melvin Lim]
00:10:36,799 –> 00:10:39,200
of apartment, husband and wife,

246[Melvin Lim]
00:10:39,200 –> 00:10:41,600
and then the kids can visit them over the weekends.

247[Melvin Lim]
00:10:41,600 –> 00:10:44,000
And they want a little bit more manageable in terms

248[Melvin Lim]
00:10:44,000 –> 00:10:47,679
of space and what is gonna be some of their mindset.

249[Melvin Lim]
00:10:47,679 –> 00:10:49,759
So we wanna look at that as well in the article,

250[Melvin Lim]
00:10:49,759 –> 00:10:51,960
we’ll chat more about this also following on.

251[Melvin Lim]
00:10:51,960 –> 00:10:55,639
And then when we look at this second observation,

252[Melvin Lim]
00:10:55,639 –> 00:10:58,639
which is that Singapore families are earning more

253[Melvin Lim]
00:10:58,639 –> 00:11:00,720
in higher income brackets.

254[Melvin Lim]
00:11:00,720 –> 00:11:02,440
When we look at this, coupled with some

255[Melvin Lim]
00:11:02,440 –> 00:11:05,240
of the other findings over here,

256[Melvin Lim]
00:11:05,240 –> 00:11:07,240
having more working couples,

257[Melvin Lim]
00:11:07,240 –> 00:11:10,200
that means husband and wife are now working and being

258[Melvin Lim]
00:11:10,200 –> 00:11:14,639
more educated together with both people.

259[Melvin Lim]
00:11:14,639 –> 00:11:16,759
that means you have dual income in a household.

260[Melvin Lim]
00:11:16,759 –> 00:11:21,240
That definitely perhaps contributed to a higher sort

261[Melvin Lim]
00:11:21,240 –> 00:11:24,159
of combined income in terms of the monthly

262[Melvin Lim]
00:11:24,159 –> 00:11:25,120
household income from work.

263[Melvin Lim]
00:11:25,120 –> 00:11:26,120
So if you were to look at this,

264[Melvin Lim]
00:11:26,120 –> 00:11:28,720
the surprising statistic is that families that are

265[Melvin Lim]
00:11:28,720 –> 00:11:30,120
earning $20,000 and over,

266[Melvin Lim]
00:11:30,120 –> 00:11:32,919
they have more than doubled over the last 10 years.

267[Melvin Lim]
00:11:32,919 –> 00:11:37,519
So in 2010, that was like 6.6%, now is like 13.9%.

268[Melvin Lim]
00:11:37,519 –> 00:11:40,159
And what does this mean in terms of purchasing power,

269[Melvin Lim]
00:11:40,159 –> 00:11:43,559
in terms of the total debt servicing ratio,

270[Melvin Lim]
00:11:43,559 –> 00:11:47,200
income, loaning ability for their next mortgage.

271[Melvin Lim]
00:11:47,200 –> 00:11:50,639
And does it mean that families then will now look

272[Melvin Lim]
00:11:50,639 –> 00:11:51,759
at bigger homes.

273[Melvin Lim]
00:11:51,759 –> 00:11:53,440
If you study social psychology

274[Melvin Lim]
00:11:53,440 –> 00:11:55,120
while you’re in your tertiary education,

275[Melvin Lim]
00:11:55,120 –> 00:11:57,480
maybe in some secondary schools,

276[Melvin Lim]
00:11:57,480 –> 00:11:58,360
you perhaps have already seen

277[Melvin Lim]
00:11:58,360 –> 00:12:01,159
this triangle chart called Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

278[Melvin Lim]
00:12:01,159 –> 00:12:04,519
And the five level of needs usually states that level one

279[Melvin Lim]
00:12:04,519 –> 00:12:06,080
and two are the basic needs.

280[Melvin Lim]
00:12:06,080 –> 00:12:09,200
Home has always been under the shelter category to be

281[Melvin Lim]
00:12:09,200 –> 00:12:10,759
one of our core needs.

282[Melvin Lim]
00:12:10,759 –> 00:12:13,919
So usually the very first thing that a working adult

283[Melvin Lim]
00:12:13,919 –> 00:12:16,480
want to settle first is their home,

284[Melvin Lim]
00:12:16,480 –> 00:12:17,879
followed by their transport.

285[Melvin Lim]
00:12:17,879 –> 00:12:21,480
I mean, of course sometimes they will vice versa.

286[Melvin Lim]
00:12:21,480 –> 00:12:23,240
They might get a car first instead of getting a home.

287[Melvin Lim]
00:12:23,240 –> 00:12:26,519
But of course we advise all young people to first save up

288[Melvin Lim]
00:12:26,519 –> 00:12:28,120
enough down payment, get your home first.

289[Melvin Lim]
00:12:28,120 –> 00:12:29,559
And then before you get your car, right,

290[Melvin Lim]
00:12:29,559 –> 00:12:32,519
because a car only lasts for 10 years, a home

291[Melvin Lim]
00:12:32,519 –> 00:12:34,120
will at least last you for, I mean,

292[Melvin Lim]
00:12:34,120 –> 00:12:35,480
like at least 90 over years

293[Melvin Lim]
00:12:35,480 –> 00:12:37,360
if you go for like a newer apartment, right?

294[Melvin Lim]
00:12:37,360 –> 00:12:40,159
So go for a home first before you head for a car.

295[Melvin Lim]
00:12:40,159 –> 00:12:42,120
And that’s definitely a very wise planning.

296[Melvin Lim]
00:12:42,120 –> 00:12:45,080
Now, families will definitely wanna settle

297[Melvin Lim]
00:12:45,080 –> 00:12:46,879
these two very important things.

298[Melvin Lim]
00:12:46,879 –> 00:12:50,080
Housing, accommodation followed by transportation.

299[Melvin Lim]
00:12:50,080 –> 00:12:55,399
And if a family has increased income over the years,

300[Melvin Lim]
00:12:55,399 –> 00:12:57,399
maybe their combined income starting when they are

301[Melvin Lim]
00:12:57,399 –> 00:13:00,200
working is close to maybe about $8,000.

302[Melvin Lim]
00:13:00,200 –> 00:13:04,080
And then as they work in their companies, they perform well,

303[Melvin Lim]
00:13:04,080 –> 00:13:06,120
both their combined income now shift up

304[Melvin Lim]
00:13:06,120 –> 00:13:09,559
towards the $12,000, $15,000 and then eventually crosses

305[Melvin Lim]
00:13:09,559 –> 00:13:12,039
the $20,000-over bandwidth mark.

306[Melvin Lim]
00:13:12,039 –> 00:13:14,759
We want to look at what is the income loaning ability

307[Melvin Lim]
00:13:14,759 –> 00:13:16,440
and of course if you punch in some numbers

308[Melvin Lim]
00:13:16,440 –> 00:13:19,240
in a lot of total debt servicing ratio, you will find

309[Melvin Lim]
00:13:19,240 –> 00:13:23,279
that as the family inches above $20,000, of course,

310[Melvin Lim]
00:13:23,279 –> 00:13:25,440
we didn’t go into detail about what is like

311[Melvin Lim]
00:13:25,440 –> 00:13:28,440
the age category of usually families with income

312[Melvin Lim]
00:13:28,440 –> 00:13:29,519
more than $20,000.

313[Melvin Lim]
00:13:29,519 –> 00:13:30,559
Let’s say, for example,

314[Melvin Lim]
00:13:30,559 –> 00:13:34,600
if they are in their mid 30s or late 30s,

315[Melvin Lim]
00:13:34,600 –> 00:13:37,759
and both combined income is like $25,000,

316[Melvin Lim]
00:13:37,759 –> 00:13:41,080
easily, this family can afford to move to a landed property.

317[Melvin Lim]
00:13:41,080 –> 00:13:43,039
So we wanna understand because of this,

318[Melvin Lim]
00:13:43,039 –> 00:13:45,559
will there be an uptake in terms of larger

319[Melvin Lim]
00:13:45,559 –> 00:13:48,879
apartments in terms of landed homes,

320[Melvin Lim]
00:13:48,879 –> 00:13:50,679
in terms of families moving inwards

321[Melvin Lim]
00:13:50,679 –> 00:13:52,039
towards the Core Central Region,

322[Melvin Lim]
00:13:52,039 –> 00:13:56,840
because this level of income will then allow more

323[Melvin Lim]
00:13:56,840 –> 00:13:59,279
families to either go for bigger properties,

324[Melvin Lim]
00:13:59,279 –> 00:14:01,240
properties of a higher quantum,

325[Melvin Lim]
00:14:01,240 –> 00:14:02,759
properties in more of the

326[Melvin Lim]
00:14:02,759 –> 00:14:07,639
Core Central Region and thus will this then beef up a lot

327[Melvin Lim]
00:14:07,639 –> 00:14:09,360
more demand in these few key areas?

328[Melvin Lim]
00:14:09,360 –> 00:14:11,360
So these are also things that we wanna understand.

329[Melvin Lim]
00:14:11,360 –> 00:14:13,600
So when we look at the next thing on households

330[Melvin Lim]
00:14:13,600 –> 00:14:16,519
shrinking to three or fewer members,

331[Melvin Lim]
00:14:16,519 –> 00:14:19,039
when we look at maybe this total statistics.

332[Melvin Lim]
00:14:19,039 –> 00:14:21,240
All right, by the way, this chart is fantastic.

333[Melvin Lim]
00:14:21,240 –> 00:14:22,080
Okay.

334[Melvin Lim]
00:14:22,080 –> 00:14:25,679
So there’s an increase in terms of two-person household

335[Melvin Lim]
00:14:25,679 –> 00:14:28,559
from 18.8% to 22.6%.

336[Melvin Lim]
00:14:28,559 –> 00:14:29,440
And then of course,

337[Melvin Lim]
00:14:29,440 –> 00:14:32,320
Three-person household is pretty much similar,

338[Melvin Lim]
00:14:32,320 –> 00:14:35,519
Four-person household, there was a decrease,

339[Melvin Lim]
00:14:35,519 –> 00:14:37,639
and then five-person decrease as well.

340[Melvin Lim]
00:14:37,639 –> 00:14:40,600
And then one-person household increase.

341[Melvin Lim]
00:14:40,600 –> 00:14:42,759
So there’s also an increase in the amount

342[Melvin Lim]
00:14:42,759 –> 00:14:43,639
of single households.

343[Melvin Lim]
00:14:43,639 –> 00:14:46,879
So what does this mean if there’s an increase

344[Melvin Lim]
00:14:46,879 –> 00:14:50,240
over the past 10 years in the amount of single family

345[Melvin Lim]
00:14:50,240 –> 00:14:53,879
requirement and two-person family requirement, of course,

346[Melvin Lim]
00:14:53,879 –> 00:14:57,440
three-person family requirement technically stays the same

347[Melvin Lim]
00:14:57,440 –> 00:15:00,120
and then four-person, five-person reduces.

348[Melvin Lim]
00:15:00,120 –> 00:15:02,360
So what does this mean and how does it balance

349[Melvin Lim]
00:15:02,360 –> 00:15:05,639
out with the recent trend that in the past 12 months,

350[Melvin Lim]
00:15:05,639 –> 00:15:08,039
there has been so much uptake in the amount

351[Melvin Lim]
00:15:08,039 –> 00:15:09,840
of larger size apartments.

352[Melvin Lim]
00:15:09,840 –> 00:15:12,240
And does it balance off because of the change

353[Melvin Lim]
00:15:12,240 –> 00:15:15,600
in lifestyle changes, we work from home

354[Melvin Lim]
00:15:15,600 –> 00:15:18,080
because of the pandemic, kids studying from home

355[Melvin Lim]
00:15:18,080 –> 00:15:19,360
because of the pandemic as well.

356[Melvin Lim]
00:15:19,360 –> 00:15:22,080
Does it balance out with this shrinking

357[Melvin Lim]
00:15:22,080 –> 00:15:23,440
household in Singapore?

358[Melvin Lim]
00:15:23,440 –> 00:15:25,360
So that’s also something that we wanna understand,

359[Melvin Lim]
00:15:25,360 –> 00:15:28,080
but most importantly, there’s also this stats

360[Melvin Lim]
00:15:28,080 –> 00:15:31,960
that there are ageing residents living alone

361[Melvin Lim]
00:15:31,960 –> 00:15:35,679
and thus households with at least one member aged

362[Melvin Lim]
00:15:35,679 –> 00:15:37,799
65 years and over,

363[Melvin Lim]
00:15:37,799 –> 00:15:41,799
you have seen the increase from 24% to 35%.

364[Melvin Lim]
00:15:41,799 –> 00:15:45,559
So does it mean that because of this, more ageing families,

365[Melvin Lim]
00:15:45,559 –> 00:15:49,360
they are now staying with their current family as well?

366[Melvin Lim]
00:15:49,360 –> 00:15:52,399
So does it mean that they then need bigger properties?

367[Melvin Lim]
00:15:52,399 –> 00:15:55,039
So all these have certain kind of impact

368[Melvin Lim]
00:15:55,039 –> 00:15:57,360
with the type of properties and accommodation

369[Melvin Lim]
00:15:57,360 –> 00:15:58,879
that people are looking at in the market.

370[Melvin Lim]
00:15:58,879 –> 00:16:00,320
And we wanna understand a little bit more

371[Melvin Lim]
00:16:00,320 –> 00:16:04,399
about this in some of our research articles done

372[Melvin Lim]
00:16:04,399 –> 00:16:07,600
by our PLB Insights team and stay tuned

373[Melvin Lim]
00:16:07,600 –> 00:16:10,720
for our PLB Insights article series.

374[Melvin Lim]
00:16:10,720 –> 00:16:13,000
And we’re gonna cover that a little bit more.

375[Melvin Lim]
00:16:13,000 –> 00:16:16,200
And so meantime, we’re gonna wrap up this episode

376[Melvin Lim]
00:16:16,200 –> 00:16:18,120
and we will see you on the next one.

377[Melvin Lim]
00:16:18,120 –> 00:16:20,720
And we’re gonna deep dive a little bit more to some

378[Melvin Lim]
00:16:20,720 –> 00:16:24,879
of the very particular types of population census

379[Melvin Lim]
00:16:24,879 –> 00:16:27,799
that we think might affect the housing market

380[Melvin Lim]
00:16:27,799 –> 00:16:29,000
in the next three to five years.

381[Melvin Lim]
00:16:29,000 –> 00:16:30,759
So meantime, we’ll see you on the next one.

382[Melvin Lim]
00:16:30,759 –> 00:16:32,799
My name is Melvin Lim and thank you for staying with us,

383[Melvin Lim]
00:16:32,799 –> 00:16:33,600
and in the meantime, take care.

384[Melvin Lim]
00:16:33,600 –> 00:16:34,159
Cheers.